Signs of Bad Times for US Tech
2 1/2 years ago, I predicted that in 4-5 years (so 2013-2014) we’d begin to see a wave of companies and independent developers begin moving away from the US as a place of business because of software patents. Partly because the US has a severely fucked up patent system where glaringly obvious patents are granted (not to mention that the ineptitude of the patent office in anything remotely related to tech since they seem to ignore all prior art in the field). This ties into my theory that by 2015, the US would no longer be the leader in innovation in technology as our lead will be cut down by emerging countries such as China, India, and already strong countries in Europe such as Germany. Additionally, this loss will have the impact of dethroning the US as the leading economic power in the world. Of course, this wouldn’t happen if Obama decides to follow through on his campaign promises (anti-lobby stance and more transparency specifically as these are the main reasons the RIAA, MPAA, etc. are successfully pushing for idiotic things like 6-strikes law, stronger IP laws (PROTECT IP), and shooting down net neutrality), which, as we all know now, did not happen. So I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that my prediction is starting to come true 2 years early:
This is just the start so you can probably expect this sort of sentiment to pick up and gain momentum in the coming year unless someone in the government starts doing something to rectify the problem. I’ll take the pessimistic stance and say that the US government is too corrupt to take the necessary measures to stop this trend. Instead, they will apply a band-aid fix that will fall apart after half a year or so once the lawyers find loopholes around it. The estimate for the US downfall (2015) shouldn’t change much since everything else in my overly complicated theory (perhaps I’ll write this up if I ever want to spend a week on a single post) is progressing at the expected pace.